Fall
2009 ECON 260 ____Statistics for Business and Economics Syllabus
INSTRUCTOR: Robert Irons OFFICE
HOURS: 2:30 – 3:30 PM TR
PHONE: (708) 524-6841 EMAIL:
PLEASE
SHUT OFF ALL CELL PHONES PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF EACH CLASS PERIOD.
CLASS MEETS: Class
will meet each Tuesday and Thursday at 1:00 PM.
PREREQUISITES: CIS 120, Math 170
recommended
TEXTBOOK: Basic Statistics for Business
& Economics, Sixth Edition, Lind, Marchal
& Wathen,
McGraw-Hill,
2006, with CD-ROM
OTHER
MATERIALS: Students
must bring a hand-held calculator to every class, and have access to a computer
loaded with Microsoft Excel. Students are expected to be proficient in the use
of their own calculator and a PC. Experience with MS Excel is desirable but not
necessary. Students must also have access to email, an active Dominican email
account, and access to the internet.
COURSE
OVERVIEW:
This course is designed to provide an overview of the basic concepts and
principles of descriptive and inferential statistics with an emphasis on their
application in the practice of business. The material is structured to teach
students to think analytically and critically about business problems that lend
themselves to quantitative analysis. Theoretical material will be supplemented
with problems solved using Microsoft Excel and with business cases, all of
which will help students develop essential problem-solving skills necessary to
deal with ambiguity in the real business world.
The course will be presented as a mixture of
lecture and discussion. An interactive exchange of ideas will take place in the
classroom, with the instructor assuming the role of facilitator. Students are
required to work the cases to develop a best
practice decision. Student analysis will be a significant portion of the
coursework and grading.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
1.
Appreciate
the ethical issues associated with data analysis and its use in managerial
decision-making.
2.
Develop
graphical and numerical depictions of datasets (charts, histograms, scatter
diagrams, etc.).
3.
Calculate
and interpret descriptive and inferential statistics.
4.
Develop
and analyze probability distributions using real-world data.
5.
Understand
the issues involved in drawing samples to represent a population.
6.
Apply
confidence intervals and hypothesis tests to make decisions about population
characteristics based upon samples.
7.
Communicate
statistical analysis effectively to others in written and verbal formats.
8.
Conduct
and analyze regression models and other types of forecasting models (moving
average, exponential smoothing, time series, etc.).
9.
Develop
data analysis skills using Microsoft Excel.
BRIEF OVERVIEW OF MY TEACHING/EDUCATION
PHILOSOPHY. Business schools are professional schools. Programs
should focus on developing competent and ethical practitioners of business,
similar to the way medical schools develop competent doctors and law schools
develop competent attorneys. Students are best served by courses that include
cases and projects that simulate real-world business problems and situations
and highlight the skills students have acquired. These skills should directly
contribute to improved professional performance. Theory is useful when it
provides a conceptual framework that helps students identify classic business
themes and break down complex situations into more manageable components so
that problem-solving and analysis becomes easier.
Some of the formal class policies listed below,
particularly the ones on attendance, class participation, completion of
homework, etc., may appear unnecessary, especially for an adult audience.
Experience has taught me, however, that the small
amount of time and effort it takes to make class policies and other
expectations clear at the beginning of the semester can save a lot of time and
effort later by preempting unnecessary misunderstandings. Thank you for your
patience and attention to these items.
OFFICE HOURS AND APPOINTMENTS. For everyone’s convenience, office hours will be held from 2-3 PM each
weekday. Appointments can be made for hours outside of that time frame. Walk-ins
are welcome, with the understanding that those students with appointments will
be given priority.
LECTURES. After the first class, lectures will be given based upon the assumption
that the assigned material for that lecture has already been read. Reading the
material prior to the lecture date will have a positive impact on your
understanding of the lecture, as well as your ability to ask relevant
questions.
EXAMINATIONS. Dates of the in-class exams are listed below in the syllabus topic
outline. Students are expected to arrange their schedules so they can attend
all regularly scheduled exams and exercises.
GRADING POLICY:
There
will be three exams, comprised of multiple choice theory questions and
calculator-based quantitative questions. There will be homework assigned for
each chapter, which will not be turned in, but instead kept in a homework
notebook that is brought to each class. There will be three projects assigned
that will require you to analyze data and write reports on your findings. Final
grades will be based on the following distribution:
|
Projects
(Total) |
30% |
|
Homework |
10% |
|
Exam
I |
20% |
|
Exam
II |
20% |
|
Exam
III |
20% |
|
Total |
100% |
|
A |
93%+ |
|
A- |
90% - 92.9% |
|
B+ |
87.1% - 89.9% |
|
B |
83% - 87% |
|
B- |
80% - 82.9% |
|
C+ |
77.1% - 79.9% |
|
C |
73% - 77% |
|
C- |
70% - 72.9% |
|
D+ |
67.1% - 69.9% |
|
D |
63% - 67% |
|
D- |
60% - 62.9% |
|
F |
< 60% |
There is a maximum
of 100 achievable points. After all the criteria are evaluated, an appropriate
grade distribution based on final class averages will be constructed. Students
with final class averages conforming to the traditional 90/80/70/60 breakpoints
will earn grades equal to A/B/C/D. In general, grades of A
are awarded to students who display consistent excellence in terms of
attendance, attitude, preparation, commitment and achievement. Grades of B are
awarded for above average achievement and a determined commitment to excel in
the course. Grades of C are awarded for average work, and for students that
demonstrate commitment but may not be performing at the highest levels. Grades
of D are awarded for below average work, and for students that display less
than adequate commitment to mastering the material. Grades of F indicate
failing work, and/or an inadequate commitment to mastering the course material.
Grades are not
rationed. There is no limit to the number of grades in any grading category
that can be awarded. Grades are based on observable outcomes such as exam
performance, project quality, and students' contribution to creating a positive
class environment. Unobservable inputs such as study time or effort do not
affect course grades.
DISCLAIMERS. The detailed topic outline below shows the proposed course schedule.
Some flexibility across weeks should be expected, but in general I'll try to
adhere to the schedule as much as possible. While students are encouraged to
pursue as much additional reading as they like, class time will focus on the
material described in the topic outline below.
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS. Each week there will be problems assigned on the Blackboard web page for
the class. Detailed solutions to most assigned homework will be reviewed in
class on the due date. Students are expected to understand the solutions to all
assigned homework. Most of the exam questions will be modeled after problems
assigned for homework or demonstrated during lecture.
PLAGIARISM:
Plagiarism
is the use of another person’s work or ideas without giving credit to the
originator. If plagiarism is suspected, the parties involved will receive a failing
grade for the class and their conduct will be reported to the administration,
to become a part of their permanent record.
ATTENDANCE POLICY. Attendance is an important component of your success in the course.
Lectures are drawn from a wide variety of background materials, and there is a
substantial amount of technical material that requires significant build-up to
present effectively. Additionally, most class sessions will include facilitated
discussions on pre-assigned topics. Missing many classes and/or being
chronically late not only affects your understanding of the material, but
imposes costs on other students when you are not present and fully prepared to
participate in each class session. You must be able to attend class in order to
contribute and participate. The recommended number of absences in this course
is zero, but students will be allowed to miss up to 3 classes before incurring
a mandatory penalty. Beginning with the 4th absence, students' final course
averages will be reduced by 5 points (based on a 100-point scale) for each
additional absence. Students are required to attend the first day of class and
must be present for the in-class exams (dates provided in the "course
outline" at the end of the syllabus), and to provide advance notification
of absences via e-mail.
LATE ARRIVAL. Students are granted the courtesy of one late arrival each semester. If
you are late, please enter the room quietly and take a seat close to the door.
If being chronically late adversely affects your understanding of the course
material or disrupts the learning environment, your grade may be reduced.
MAKE-UP POLICY. Students should not assume they will be granted automatic extensions or
make-ups if they miss homework and/or exam deadlines without advance
permission. Waivers from homework, exam, or other course requirements or
deadlines, including permission to miss and make up an exam at a later time
will be granted in writing, and only for extraordinary circumstances (see
below). To avoid misunderstandings, there will be no verbal waivers from course
requirements or deadlines.
EXTRAORDINARY
CIRCUMSTANCES. Students encountering genuine emergencies or other
extraordinary circumstances should contact me as soon as circumstances allow.
Barring truly extraordinary circumstances, however, students are expected to
adhere to the course schedule and complete all exams, assignments, and other
course requirements on time. Students who fall out of contact for an extended
period of time and miss deadlines without advance explanation will be assigned
a grade of "F."
COMMUNICATION
CHANNELS. E-mail is the best way to contact me. Students are
always welcome to call me in the office, but if I don't answer the phone you
might get a faster call back by sending an e-mail with your contact phone
numbers and preferred contact times.
PROJECT
ANALYSIS
The
following steps should be used as a guide whenever analyzing a case (simpler
cases will not require all of these steps):
1.
Graph
what you can in Excel (bar charts, pivot tables, etc.) in order to visually
assess the data.
2.
Run
descriptive statistics (Tool – Data Analysis – Descriptive Statistics). Be sure
that the data “count” includes all of your data (unless outliers are identified
and intentionally removed).
3.
Interpret
the following:
a.
Is
the mean valid? ( check skewness & kurtosis)
b.
Range
c.
Variation
& Standard deviation
d.
Quartiles
e.
Chebyshev’s
Empirical Rule
f.
Correlation
coefficient (covariance and coefficient of variation if needed)
4.
Scatter
diagrams
a.
Add
trend line
b.
Interpret
R2, slope and intercept
5.
What
additional data is needed in order to evaluate the problem more effectively?
How is the managerial function helped or enhanced by this study?
Write-ups
for the cases should be professional (spelling, grammar and sentence construction
count!), coherent and concise. Address the memo to a specific person or group,
including title (make one up if necessary), and design the paper to that
individual (or group). Include all tables, graphs and calculations in your
paper (embed tables and graphs from Excel in the Word document using the
techniques outlined in your text). Include an executive summary at the
beginning of the document and a summary at the end. Write the memo using the
following (simplified) format:
A.
Tell
them what you are going to tell them;
B.
Tell
them;
C.
Tell
them what you told them.
NOTE:
Cases presented must be entirely original material (any references to
previously published material must be fully credited). Plagiarism is a serious
infraction, and will not be tolerated. Students
determined to have plagiarized any portion of their work will receive a failing
grade for the class, and the incident will be reported to the administration to
become part of their permanent record. Work determined to have been copied from
another student will be treated in the same way.
COURSE OUTLINE:
Date
|
Topic
|
Projects
|
|
9/1 |
Ch.1:
What is Statistics? |
|
|
9/3
– 9/8 |
|
Project 1: Prob. 48, pg. 53 |
|
9/10
– 9/15 |
|
|
|
9/17
– 9/22 |
Ch.
4: Describing Data: Displaying & Exploring Data |
|
|
9/24 - 9/29 |
|
|
|
10/1
& 10/6 |
Exam I - |
|
|
10/8
– 10/13 |
|
Project 1 due |
|
10/15
– 10/20 |
|
|
|
10/22
– 10/27 |
|
|
|
10/29
– 11/3 |
Project 2: Handout |
|
|
11/5
– 11/10 |
Ch.
10: One-Sample tests of Hypothesis |
|
|
11/12
& 11/17 |
Exam II – |
|
|
11/19
– 11/24 |
|
|
|
12/1
– 12/3 |
|
Project 2 due |
|
12/8 – 12/10 |
|
Project 3: Handout |
|
12/15 – 12/17 |
|
|
|
Week of 12/21 |
Exam III
–
|
Project 3
due
|
Homework
will be due the class period following the lecture covering the material in
question.
A
Conceptual Understanding of Statistics
Before discussing the tools, it is necessary
to have a basic understanding of the nature of statistics; what statistical
calculations are attempting to explain. Many business managers learn how to
calculate statistics without knowing how to interpret the numbers they are
calculating, or what significance changes in those numbers hold.
In business, data reflects activity. That is,
the numbers posted in the various reports distributed on a daily basis reflect
some activity that the people in the business have undertaken in the pursuit of
the goals set out by the management of the firm. Whether they are production
figures, financial figures, or marketing figures, the numbers conveyed
summarize the activities of the employees of the firm. With this understanding,
the data (those numbers generated via the activities) exhibit behavior related
to the underlying activities. When production ramps up, either sales will increase or inventories will increase (or both).
If marketing focuses on a new product or a different demographic, the sales
figures are expected to respond (assuming the marketing efforts are
successful). Thus the data has behavior, and that behavior is an artifact of
the activities that create the data. Statistics are tools used to identify the
behavior of the data, and thus give insight into the nature and impact of the
underlying business activities.
Most statistics look at the data in one (or
both) of two ways:
It helps to keep these two perspectives in
mind, and to try to understand the different statistical tests in these terms.